Qantas sets October 2027 start date for Project Sunrise

By Andrew Curran.

Qantas will launch its long-awaited and much-delayed Sydney (SYD) – London (LHR) Project Sunrise flights in October 2027, although it has not specified an exact start date or flight frequencies. The airline will need at least three A350-1000ULRs to operate daily services to London and is expecting delivery of the first of 12 aircraft in April 2027.

The 22-hour non-stop flights between the two cities will cut around four hours from current travel times. Tickets, which are expected to go on sale in February, will sell at a 20% premium to current one-stop flights.

Qantas’ existing one-stop flights to London from Australia’s east coast, which normally operate via Perth (PER) or Singapore (SIN), will remain. As a result, London Heathrow will host three Qantas services each day.

Qantas also says it expects to start flying between Sydney and New York (JFK) by the end of 2027.

Project Sunrise to deliver capacity growth

The first A350-1000ULR was expected to be delivered by the end of this year but was most recently delayed because of seat certification issues, pushing back the planned start of Project Sunrise flights until later in 2027.

The aircraft, which can fly more than 16,000 kilometres thanks to the installation of an additional 20,000-litre fuel tank, will seat 238 passengers across four cabin classes, including six in first class, 52 in business class, 40 in premium economy and 140 in economy.

Qantas released its Project Sunrise investment case presentation overnight. While light on substance, it did say the aircraft would deliver disciplined capacity growth to meet underlying demand, reduce exposure to competitive and macroeconomic risks, and deliver a significant step-up in revenue quality.

“Sunrise capacity reflects disciplined growth aligned with underlying demand,” the presentation reads.

Qantas argues the current Middle East conflict is temporary in nature, at least as far as it affects travel demand. The airline says that, in the longer term, demand for international travel to and from Australia will likely exceed supply due to population growth, rising per-capita GDP and a post-COVID structural contraction in airline capacity.

Flights well suited to Qantas's customer base

Qantas says its Project Sunrise flights, which could eventually expand to include services from Melbourne (MEL) and destinations in Africa and South America, align well with Australia’s geography and customer base.

Beneath the PR guff, the presentation did reveal a few interesting hard data points about Project Sunrise. The aircraft are expected to deliver structurally higher revenue through stronger yields and increased market share by attracting greater premium demand. Specifically, Qantas forecasts a 20% increase in revenue per available seat kilometre compared with one-stop flights.

Once all twelve A350-1000ULRs have been delivered by 2030, the airline expects the aircraft to generate an additional AUD400 million (USD281 million) in annual earnings.

The airline also said the A350-1000ULRs’ freight belly capacity would support growing Australia – US and Asia – US cargo demand. Additionally, the arrival of the A350-1000ULRs, along with another twelve A350-1000LRs on order, will allow Qantas to redeploy its workhorse B787-9s into new and existing markets.

“(The) Sunrise proposition further enhances Qantas International network and drives value through the rest of the Group,” the presentation notes.

Project Sunrise flights to New York by the end of 2027

Qantas expects to have five A350-1000ULRs delivered by the end of 2027, allowing it to start services to New York JFK, albeit not on a daily basis. Qantas will need six A350ULRs to operate daily flights from Sydney to both London and New York.

That will leave the remaining six aircraft due to be delivered later this decade to operate on other unannounced routes. The airline gave no firm commitment on the start of Project Sunrise flights from Melbourne, although it has previously said this would happen.

The first A350-1000ULR is currently undergoing flight testing and the second has just emerged from the Airbus paint shop in Qantas livery.

Qantas’ contract with Airbus stipulates that no other airline can order the A350-1000ULR until all 12 have been delivered to Qantas. However, how many airlines require such an ultra-long-range aircraft remains an open question.

Photo: Qantas.

Contact the writer: andrew@aerosouthpacific.com