Qantas chair gets real on SAF uptake and sustainable aviation
By Andrew Curran.
The Qantas Group chairman is taking a bearish view about the aviation industry’s chances of reducing its environmental impact over the next couple of decades. John Mullen says electric and hydrogen aircraft won’t be working high volume trunk routes and the large scale uptake of sustainable aviation fuel will likely depend on government intervention.
Speaking on a podcast produced by the Australia and International Pilots Association (AIPA), Mullen zeroed in on key trends for Qantas and the broader aviation industry over the next twenty years.
He spoke briefly about fleets and networks but said the “big question is propulsion and electric and hydrogen aircraft.” But Mullen tempered any expectations of those fuel sources powering any large aircraft anytime soon.
“I can’t see in my lifetime any major trunk route aircraft operating on either hydrogen or electric,” he said. “To my understanding, neither of the major manufacturers has anything on the drawing board in that respect.”
“I think you will see it for smaller commuter, air taxis, that sort of thing, but to fly from Australia to Singapore or London with an electric or hydrogen aircraft, I don’t think that’s going to happen.”
Relying on SAF to cut emissions is proving problematic
The Qantas group is targeting net zero emissions by 2050. Closer in, its interim targets include a 25% reduction in net scope 1 and 2 emissions from 2019 levels by 2030, and adding 10% SAF in the overall fuel mix by 2030.
While Mullen argues Qantas and the aviation industry will need to rely on sustainable aviation fuel to get their emissions down. he thinks this strategy will prove problematic as well.
“The big push is probably going to be sustainable aviation fuel,” the chairman said. “That’s a challenge too. The airline industry as a whole, including at IATA level, has made all sorts of promises. But it’s pretty hard to see how that’s realistically achievable unless there is a really concerted co-ordinated attempt by governments, industry, and agriculture to produce sufficient stock feed to generate the amount of SAF needed at an affordable price.”
The SAF conundrum
In 2021, IATA member airlines passed a resolution committing them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This pledge brings aviation in line with supporting efforts of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal.
“To succeed, it will require the coordinated efforts of the entire industry (airlines, airports, air navigation service providers, manufacturers) and significant government support,” IATA admits.
Mullen said relying on SAF to reduce emissions to target levels was a conundrum.
“There isn’t a lot of SAF available," he continued. "Why isn’t there a lot available? Because it costs a lot to make and airlines can’t afford to pay two or three times the cost they do for fuel, and they don’t want to pass it onto passengers, and governments don’t really want to see airfares double.”
Instead, the Qantas chairman says governments will need to step up and subsidize SAF production.
“You’ve got this vicious circle, and I think it’s going to need governments to grasp the mettle and say, ‘if we want this to happen, then we’re going to have to subsidise the production of fuel for as long as it takes to get scale.’ I think that will probably come, but it’s going to be a slow process.”
You can listen to the AIPA podcast here.
Photos: Qantas.
Contact the writer: andrew@aerosouthpacific.com