ATSB Analysis Highlights Elevated Aircraft Conflicts at Sydney
By Andrew Curran.
Sydney Airport has recorded the highest rate of ground-based aircraft conflicts among Australia’s five busiest major airports since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new analysis released yesterday, September 30, by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB).
The ATSB’s Analysis of Runway Confliction Occurrences at Major Australian Airports, 2016–2026 examined reported ground-based aircraft conflicts at Sydney (SYD), Melbourne (MEL), Brisbane (BNE), Perth (PER) and Adelaide (ADL) airports. The analysis was prompted in part by a series of 11 aircraft conflict occurrences at Sydney during July and August 2026.
The ATSB found that, nationally, reported ground-confliction rates have remained broadly steady over the past decade. However, Sydney’s post-COVID rate was around 20% higher than the national average.
The agency cautioned that the result needs to be considered in the context of Sydney being Australia’s most complex airport.
Average annual runway incursion occurrences by location pre- and post-COVID by attribution, 2016–2026. Graph: ATSB.
An uptick in potentially high-consequence occurrences at Sydney Airport
The analysis also identified an increase at Sydney in potentially high-consequence occurrences, including runway incursions, taxiway near-collisions and losses of separation attributed to air traffic control actions.
The ATSB has been investigating six Sydney Airport occurrences from July and August, including several involving aircraft coming into close proximity on runways or taxiways.
In one incident on July 27, a Qantas B737-800 was cleared to cross runway 34L while a QantasLink DHC-8-Q400 was in its landing roll. Air traffic control detected the conflict and instructed the Qantas Boeing to stop before the runway.
On August 9, a Virgin Australia B737-800 began its take-off roll from runway 34L after being cleared for departure, only for the crew to see a Qantas B737-800 crossing the runway ahead of them. The Virgin crew rejected the take-off and the Qantas aircraft subsequently cleared the runway.
A second August 9 occurrence involved a Jetstar A320-200 and Qatar Airways B777-300ER. The A320 had to brake abruptly to avoid the B&77, which was being towed. A flight attendant was injured during the incident.
On August 18, a Qantas A321-200XLR had to stop on a taxiway after its crew observed another Qantas B737-800 approaching from the left.
Proportion of occurrence categories contributing to confliction occurrences (where at least one aircraft was on the ground) at major Australian airports 2016–2026. Graph: ATSB.
Sydney ATC staffing issues a recurring issue
The ATSB says staffing within Sydney Airport’s control tower has emerged as a recurring area of enquiry in several of the investigations. It is examining the practice of combining operational roles, reliance on overtime to fill shifts and training or supervision activities being conducted alongside operational duties.
Airservices Australia’s roster modelling also identified elevated fatigue risks among air traffic control staff at the time of several of the occurrences. However, the ATSB has stressed that an elevated fatigue risk does not mean an individual controller was fatigued or that fatigue affected their performance.
“The ATSB has yet to determine whether staff resourcing factors directly contributed to any occurrence, or whether they were simply underlying conditions that were recognised and being effectively managed by Airservices,” the bureau said.
Average annual runway incursion occurrences by severity for each location pre- and post-COVID, 2016 – 2026. Graph: ATSB.
Responses to concerns raised
The ATSB says its statistical analysis does not establish that Sydney Airport has become inherently unsafe. Rather, it provides broader context for the individual investigations and identifies areas requiring further examination.
A Sydney Airport Air Traffic Control Working Group, led by the Department of Infrastructure and involving Airservices, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA), airlines, unions and Sydney Airport, has been established to develop a shared understanding of the issues and potential solutions.
Airservices is also implementing a Service Resilience Plan for Sydney Airport.
The ATSB says its six individual investigations remain ongoing and that final reports will contain the findings and detailed analysis supporting them. Any critical safety issues identified during the investigations will be communicated to relevant stakeholders immediately.
You can read the full ATSB analysis here.
Photo: Sydney Airport.
Contact the writer: andrew@aerosouthpacific.com